Thinking in bets

making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts

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Annie Duke: Thinking in bets (2018)

276 pages

English language

Published Nov. 11, 2018

ISBN:
978-0-7352-1635-8
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OCLC Number:
999443118

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4 stars (2 reviews)

"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to …

1 edition

More a self-help book than a math book

3 stars

The first portion of the book dives into separating luck from skill as she defines what constitutes a good decision. Three recurring examples are:

  • Nate Silver's "incorrect" forecast of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  • Steve Bartman interfering with the foul ball in the 2003 NLCS
  • Pete Carroll's playcall at the end of Super Bowl XLIX

If you still scapegoat any of the three, Duke ably explains why you should reconsider. I'd already exonerated all three, and didn't get much novel out of the setup.

The book transitions more toward psychology and self-help: once we understand that good decisions can have bad outcomes, and vice versa, how do we make better ones. Duke's commentary on escaping our bubble is important, but I had the misfortune of reading it during an election season. The cognitive dissonance between the author imploring me to seek out disagreeable opinions, while the most vile transphobic and …

avatar for neontapir

rated it

4 stars

Subjects

  • Management games
  • Decision making